Carlisle
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Julie Minns
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
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2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 20.0%; Green: 10.0% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 18.0%; LD: 10.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 43.0%; Lab: 19.0%; Cons: 18.0% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 17.0%; LD: 10.0% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Lab: 21.0%; Cons: 20.0%; LD: 11.0% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Lab: 22.0%; Cons: 21.0%; LD: 14.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 21.0% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 19.0%; Green: 10.0%; LD: 10.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Cons: 26.0%; Lab: 23.0% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 21.0%; LD: 12.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 23.0% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Lab | Vote shares: Lab: 31.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Ref: 28.0% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Safe Cons | Victory chances: Cons: 96.4% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 5200 (11.30%)
Turnout: 59.05%
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Minns | Labour Party | 18129 | 39.4% |
| John Stevenson | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12929 | 28.1% |
| Stephen Ward | Reform UK | 9295 | 20.2% |
| Brian Wernham | Liberal Democrats | 2982 | 6.5% |
| Gavin Hawkton | Green Party | 1922 | 4.2% |
| Sean Clifford Reed | Independent | 303 | 0.7% |
| Rachel Hayton | Social Democratic Party | 244 | 0.5% |
| Thomas Alexander Ben Lynestrider | Independent | 175 | 0.4% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 11290 (22.03%)
Turnout: 67.5%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 28959 | 56.5% |
| Labour | 17669 | 34.5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2560 | 5.0% |
| Other | 1229 | 2.4% |
| Green | 823 | 1.6% |