Note: some data is purely for testing

Some of the data on this instance of the site is present for testing purposes. This includes fictional 2029 results. If you only want to see real results, please go to the production site.

Aberafan Maesteg

Official Parliament web page

Current MP

Name: Stephen Kinnock
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
They Work For You

2029 election

Candidates

CandidateParty
Stephen KinnockLabour Party
Mark GriffithsReform UK
Colin DeerePlaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Abigail MainonConservative and Unionist Party
Nigel Bartolotti HillGreen Party
Justin GriffithsLiberal Democrats
Captain BeanyIndependent
Rhiannon MorrisseyHeritage Party

Projections

ProjectionProjected resultDescription
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026Likely RefVote shares: Ref: 36.0%; PC: 21.0%; Lab: 18.0%; Cons: 10.0%
More in Common January 2026Likely RefVote shares: Ref: 42.0%; PC: 18.0%; Lab: 16.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025Likely RefVote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 11.0%
YouGov September 2025Toss-up RefVote shares: Ref: 31.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 24.0%
More in Common September 2025Lean RefVote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Lab: 26.0%
More in Common July 2025Likely RefVote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 21.0%; LD: 14.0%; PC: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025Lean RefVote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 13.0%
YouGov June 2025Toss-up RefVote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 31.0%; PC: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025Toss-up RefVote shares: Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 26.0%; Cons: 16.0%; PC: 15.0%
More in Common April 2025Lean RefVote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 19.0%; PC: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025Toss-up RefVote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 18.0%; Cons: 11.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025Toss-up LabVote shares: Lab: 38.0%; Ref: 31.0%; PC: 12.0%
More in Common Dec 2024Lean RefVictory chances: Ref: 74.0%; Lab: 20.8%

2024 results

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 10354 (28.95%)
Turnout: 49.26%

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Stephen KinnockLabour Party1783849.9%
Mark GriffithsReform UK748420.9%
Colin DeerePlaid Cymru - The Party of Wales471913.2%
Abigail MainonConservative and Unionist Party29038.1%
Nigel Bartolotti HillGreen Party10943.1%
Justin GriffithsLiberal Democrats9162.6%
Captain BeanyIndependent6181.7%
Rhiannon MorrisseyHeritage Party1830.5%

More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"

2019 notional results

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 13457 (30.29%)
Turnout: 63.6%

PartyVotesShare
Labour2350952.9%
Conservative1005222.6%
Plaid Cymru39919.0%
Reform UK37948.5%
Liberal Democrats16453.7%
Other7311.6%
Green7011.6%