Aberafan Maesteg
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Stephen Kinnock
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
They Work For You
2029 election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock | Labour Party |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative and Unionist Party |
| Nigel Bartolotti Hill | Green Party |
| Justin Griffiths | Liberal Democrats |
| Captain Beany | Independent |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Heritage Party |
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 11.0% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 31.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 24.0% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Lab: 26.0% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 21.0%; LD: 14.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 31.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 26.0%; Cons: 16.0%; PC: 15.0% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 19.0%; PC: 10.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 18.0%; Cons: 11.0% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Lab | Vote shares: Lab: 38.0%; Ref: 31.0%; PC: 12.0% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Lean Ref | Victory chances: Ref: 74.0%; Lab: 20.8% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 10354 (28.95%)
Turnout: 49.26%
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock | Labour Party | 17838 |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK | 7484 |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 4719 |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2903 |
| Nigel Bartolotti Hill | Green Party | 1094 |
| Justin Griffiths | Liberal Democrats | 916 |
| Captain Beany | Independent | 618 |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Heritage Party | 183 |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 13457 (30.29%)
Turnout: 63.6%
| Party | Votes |
|---|---|
| Labour | 23509 |
| Conservative | 10052 |
| Plaid Cymru | 3991 |
| Reform UK | 3794 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1645 |
| Other | 731 |
| Green | 701 |